State of Election Race and Bets for Tomorrow

Market Analysis

As you may know tomorrow is the day, election day! there are over 300 markets aviabale on the US election on polymarket, so i guess you have made one or two bets.

The markets has been ovepricing trump in last month or so, despite some currenction in the last couple of daysit is still overpriced vs what the data would suggest as they belive once again the the polls are understimenting Trump.

On the contrary the sharps on polymarket seems that are leaning on 55% to 60% probabilities for victory for Harris driven by the last NYT/siena, Selzer polls and past republican gain been focus on California, New York, and Florida not in swing states, here you can find a post of Doomer, one of the most succeful trader on polymarket and explain a bit his thought process

However, it's important to note that the ultimate "sharps” a.k.a Wall Street's appear to be betting on a Trump victory. This slide from the last epidose of the BG2 Pod shows that companies poised to benefit from a Trump win are up 10% month over month, while those expected to gain from a Harris victory are down by 20%.

So up to you who you want to trust but i think i will got with the guy that make billions

Prediction for tomorrow

This is purely speculative to have fun playing the guessing game, so I wouldn’t recommend anyone bet based on my prediction, but here’s how I think it might play out.

Arizona and Nevada: These two states have been heavily impacted by inflation and the border crisis. I anticipate a significant shift toward Trump here. I think it might be enough for Nevada to turn red, though this is highly uncertain. Jon Ralston, Nevada’s top political analyst, doesn’t think it will be enough, and I'd trust his judgment on any bet.
https://x.com/RalstonReports/status/1853524385694699922

Wisconsin and Michigan: Despite the Selzer polls I think it’s unlikely that Iowa will flip blue considering that all other polls says otherwise, but the poll highlights Harris’s strength in the Midwest that will be reflected in Wisconsin and Michigan staying blue.

North Carolina: North Carolina could be a bit of a surprise in this election. With increasing polarization along educational lines, North Carolina’s higher percentage of college-educated residents, compared to places like Arizona and Nevada, could help shift it toward the Democrats.

Pennsylvania: This is the least "Midwestern" state of the blue wall, so it’s tough to apply the dynamics seen in the Midwest here. I believe Pennsylvania will turn red. In 2020, Biden won by a relatively thin margin, partly due to his appeal among the white working class and his Pennsylvania roots—advantages that Harris doesn’t share. Trump’s popularity is at an all-time high, and the recent assassination attempt in the state could give him a slight edge.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/favorability/donald-trump/

Plus, you may laugh at this, but in a razor-thin race, I’d rather be on Elon Musk’s side than the other team’s, and Elon spent a lot money and time here.

Georgia: I don’t have a strong opinion on Georgia, so I’ll go with the forecasters who currently favor Trump here.

So bottom line it think Trump has slight advatange but it could really go in every direction

Bet for election night

For full transparency, here’s my election night bets. I’ve tried to place bets where I see the most value, while also hedging for what I believe will be the likely outcome of the election.

With this combination, I should to win considerably in case of a narrow victory by either Harris or Trump, make a modest gain if Harris wins in a landslide, and take a small loss if Trump wins in a landslide. Unfortunately, most of the Trump positions are overvalued, so some had to be placed at neutral or even negative EV to cover that scenario, bring a bit down all overall possible winnigs

Brace for impact

I don’t think I’ll swing trade during the election due to time zone issues, but it could be an interesting play. If you are instrested I suggest you take a look at this video—there’s an interesting table around minute 22:13 that breaks down how states are likely to lean as they begin reporting votes.

Some states report rural votes first, while others start with city votes. This could give a false impression that a state is trending Democratic or Republican based on early rural or city results, and the market may overreact, creating intriguing swing trade opportunities.

Will let you decide if it worth the play.