Should you build your Democratic positions now for election night?

Market Analysis

As we've discussed before, we are currently in a Trump bull market, with odds for Trump increasing across various markets over the past few weeks. As of now, he has reached 0.63 in the 2024 Presidential Election Winner market.

and 38% on the popular votes

the other market have did align to reflect the odds of the popular market.

While the rise in Trump's odds can be attributed to some fundamentals, such as improvement in the polls,

it is still significantly higher than the current consensus, which sees the race as essentially a toss-up. Both FiveThirtyEight and Nate Silver give the candidates roughly a 50/50 chance.

Will the trump bull market continue?

We looked at what happened in the 2020 and 2016 presidential elections on the betting and prediction markets, and we saw that close to the election, Trump experienced an uptick in odds at the end of October on both occasions, before the market reversed to the consensus.

In 2020, Trump’s odds peaked at 40% on October 18, then decreased to 35% on the eve of election night.

As well as in 2016, Trump’s odds peaked at 36% on PredictIt and 25% on betting sites on November 2, before dropping to 22% and 13%, respectively, on the eve of election night.

This can be explained in a few ways:

• People in reguarly on betting and prediction markets tend to lean more right than the average population meaning that could please their bet before.

• Whales can temporarily disrupt market prices.

• Many people tend to place their bets in the days leading up to the election, increasing volume and helping to correct prices.

What does this mean for you?